Analysts: Exit from recession must not be gauged only by GDP trend

According to the all the data we have at this moment, we will be exiting recession at the end of the first quarter, meaning that after two consecutive quarters of economic growth we have directly and surely stepped into the territory of economic growth in Romania, said Premier Emil Boc on Saturday, in Suceava.

In his turn, the head of the National Forecasting Commission, Ion Ghizdeanu, stated after Wednesday’s Government meeting that Romania might register economic growth of 0.5% in the first quarter against the last quarter of 2010 and of 1.3% against the same period of 2010.

The National Statistics Institute is due to announce the data on first quarter GDP trend on May 13.

In analysts’ opinion, the exit from recession must not be determined exclusively in terms of GDP trend. Other indicators, such as the unemployment rate, retail or the trend of real incomes need also to be tracked.

“(…) Irrespective of the recession exit moment, the economy will not resume its growth rapidly if foreign investment inflows do not accelerate and consumer pessimism persists,” believes Dan Bucșa, head of Bancpost’s research department.