Analysts have divergent expectations of today's monetary policy meeting

Analysts do not have a common answer as to where the NBR might lead the monetary policy in today’s meeting. Whereas most analysts had in vain predicted a relaxation of the minimal compulsory reserves a month ago, now opinions vary from a reduction of the interest by up to half a percentage point or of the reserves, to the monetary conditions maintaining unchanged. The different expectations of the analysts stem from the manner in which they see the latest trends of the exchange rate and inflation. While some regard the low inflation level as an opportunity for the NBR to offset the aggressive appreciation of the RON, others are more reserved. There are expectations that once the fiscal policy becomes more relaxed, we might see inflationary pressures again in the second half of the year, which would require keeping a firm monetary policy. NBR Governor Mugur Isarescu (photo), too, considers the salary policy and the potential electoral temptations to be the main risks for a continued disinflation. The Governor has recently commented that the low inflation level and expectations need consolidation, pointing out that most analysts are still anticipating an inflationary pressure build-up for the near future. However, the officials of the central bank are confident that inflation will remain within the plus/minus 1% interval of the targeted 4% until the end of the year.