Analysts improve their outlook on economy

Banks’ economic analysts are starting to improve their outlook on the Romanian economy and anticipate that ratings agencies will improve their outlooks, which means upgrading Romania to ‘investment grade’ status again.

Nicolae Chideșciuc, chief economist of ING, who is usually one of the most pessimistic analysts, expects to see “at least an improvement in Romania’s rating outlook from “stable” to “positive”. However, the main condition is calibrating the fiscal policy so as to hit the budget deficit target.

Barclays Capital, currently one of the world’s most powerful investment banks, has upgraded its growth forecast for Romania from 0.4% to 1%.

The Government, bankers and the business community are waiting to see what the economic results will be in the first quarter. If the economy records growth against the fourth quarter of 2010, it will mean Romania is technically out of recession. The rise in exports exceeded expectations, and left imports behind in January, which has happened very seldom in the last 20 years. Industry continued its growth, there were slight positive signs in the construction sector, but consumer spending remains the main problem.