Analysts planning to improve economic forecasts for 2011

Romanian analysts are planning to improve their economic growth forecasts this year, after above-expectations data have been announced as regards the economic progression in 2010.
BCR, the biggest bank on the Romanian market, currently expects a 1.2% economic growth for this year, and intends to revise its forecast upwards.
BRD-SocGen, the second-largest player on the banking market, also expects the GDP to grow to 1.2% and is considering a revision.
The economic decline recorded in 2010 was 1.2%, lower than analysts’ estimates and than the official forecast of the IMF and the Romanian authorities, of 1.9%.
For this year, most analysts’ GDP forecasts range between 0.5 and 1.5%. The IMF and the Government anticipate a real GDP rise of 1.5%.
“We will update our 2011 forecast, but after we have seen detailed data of the GDP structure. The first half of the year may not be very convincing. But in the second half, we could see the economy speed up. We could grow at a faster rate than the eurozone’s 1.5% estimated growth,” commented Lucian Anghel, chief economist of BCR.
The EBRD, the biggest institutional investor in Romania, has already improved its forecast for 2011, from 0.9% to 1.1%, after in the summer it forecast zero growth.