Autumn highs for inflation

Preliminary data for November show inflation has reached 2.4%-2.5%, Development and Prognosis minister Leonard Cazan told Ziarul Financiar. This could be the year’s peak, although December might come close to it, as well. Inflation is this way ending the year 2002 on an increasing trend, after having reached 1.6% in October. Ten-month inflation amounted to 13.2%. If inflation reached 2.5% in November, the November 2002/December 2001 inflation would amount to some 16%. Even so, chances are that inflation would not go above 19.5% by the end of December. This is due to the four months of less than 1% inflation, the all-time low of 0.4% in March included, whereas January had started with 2.3% inflation. The December to December inflation calculated in 2001 was 30.3%. The next year’s state budget is built around 14% inflationary rate, while the National Bank of Romania (NBR) is even more optimistic, forecasting 13%. Analysts say it is essential to keep inflationary expectations under control early next year. At the same time, the inflation decline should not be pushed hard, given that the still incompletely restructured economy would find it difficult to bear the costs induced by this process. ZF