Banks revise exchange rate forecasts

Romanian banks revised their year-end estimations for the national currency exchange rate against the two benchmark foreign currencies – the dollar and euro. The change was prompted by the movements on the international markets in the last two weeks, whereon the dollar visibly recovered the ground lost to the euro.

If compared with the forecasts made a month ago, for instance, the new estimates show an euro on its way down (yet maintaining a level between 38,500 – 40,000 ROL) and a dollar heading up (and fluctuating between 34,600 – 35,800 ROL).

At any rate, the analysts and treasurers do not see eye to eye on the trend of the EUR/ROL and USD/ROL rates, on the exact amount of the national currency depreciation or on where the EUR/USD rate will be by the end of the year.

“The trends on the forex markets, as well as the economic prospects in the US and EU made us change our EUR – USD estimations for the next twelve months. We are expecting the EUR/USD rate to peak at 1.16 in October, only to decrease to 1.14 by the end of the year and to 1.10 in June 2004.

Both these adjustments and the modification of National Bank of Romania’s actual appreciation target against the EUR – USD basket from 4% to 2%, forced us to change our estimations for the exchange rate on the international market. We expect the exchange rate to reach 39,904 ROL for one euro and 35,000 ROL for one dollar by yearend. This means a ROL nominal depreciation of 14,3% and 4,5% respectively against the two currencies,” Radu Craciun, senior analyst of ABN Amro Bank Romania, told Ziarul Financiar.

As a comparison, at the end of June, ABN analysts estimated that the euro would be worth 40,317 ROL, while the US currency would amount to 33,598 ROL by yearend.