CNP revises inflation estimates upwards to 6%

The National Forecast Commission (CNP) has upwardly revised its annual inflation target by 1.5%, to 6%, against 5.7% forecast by the National Bank of Romania (NBR). For December 2008, CNP anticipates a 4.5% price increase, up by 0.7%. By 2013, CNP predicts a gradual slowdown in average price increases, which is expected to stand at 2.5% at the end of the period under examination. According to the final autumn forecast (which was published at the end of last week) CNP also upwardly revised its forecast for inflation in 2009 and 2010, to 3.6% and 3% respectively, and maintained its forecast for the remaining interval as presented in September. In addition, the 2.6% inflation forecast for 2011 has been maintained, as was the 2.4% rate for 2012 and the 2.3% rate for 2013. The Governor of the NBR, Mugur Isarescu, said at the beginning of last week, that the growth rate of consumer prices could remain at a high level over the next few months, given the trend experienced in August and September. In its last report on inflation, the central bank revised its annual forecast by 1.8%, to 5.7%, against 3.9% forecast for August. This year, the inflation target set by the Government and the NBR stands at 4% (plus/minus one percentage point). Nine months into the year, the level of average annual inflation stood at 4.7%.