Consumer goods market expands unhindered in Q3

The third quarter of 2008 brought the FMCG sector sales increases by more than twice the inflation rate. However, four-quarter data could show the first trend changes.

The FMCG sector rose by 25% in terms of value in the third quarter, 2008 from the same period of 2007, a period during which inflation on these product categories revolved around 8%, shows a MEMRB survey. The advance posted during the analysed period (July-October) is similar to the one registered during the March-June interval and to the growth rate of the first half, with the data being reported against the same periods of 2007. The MEMBR survey took into account only retail, with the on-premise channel being thus not included. In the third quarter, like in the first two quarters of the year, the biggest increases were registered by the food and drinks categories, each of these posting a 27% advance against the same period of 2007. The non-food segment, with detergents and cosmetics as the biggest categories, rose by 16% in the mentioned interval, while cigarettes saw a 24% increase. However, the MEMRB survey for the fourth quarter, to be published in February, could to show some trend changes on the domestic FMCG market. “In the final quarter of the year, the growth rate of the consumer goods market may be lower than the one posted in the fourth quarter of 2007. The broad market segments, such as processed meat, are nearing maturity,” stated Marius Caluian, general manager of MEMRB company. Romania’s consumer goods market is likely to be put at 23-25bn euros in 2008, according to some previous information provided by Marius Caluian. One of the factors that boosted consumption was the aggressive expansion of international food store networks, through investments of above 2bn euros operated in the past ten years, according to ZF data. Last year’s FMCG sales through modern retail could be put at over 5-6bn euros. In November, Jose Medran, general manager of P&G Romania, the biggest player on the market, stated sales were advancing at a slower pace amid financial turmoil. This is why cost control becomes a priority for companies in the sector. Also, the representatives of major food retail networks and analysts anticipated 2009 would bring major changes in the structure of the average basket, taking its value down.