EBRD expects 0.9% economic growth in Romania in 2011

The EBRD, the biggest institutional investor in Romania, has improved its estimates on GDP growth next year, from zero in July to 0.9%.
Even so, the forecast on Romania is by far the most pessimistic of all forecasts for countries in the region. For this year, the EBRD expects the economy to fall by 2%, an improvement on the previous -3% forecast.
Forecasts of some analysts for next year have become pessimistic, anticipating a return to economic growth as late as in 2012. But the IMF and the government expect a 1.9% economic decline for this year, with 1.5% growth expected for next year.
Sources taking part in talks with the IMF told ZF the Fund was unofficially taking into account the risk of 2011 being the third consecutive year of recession. Officially, however, the IMF is, standing by its 1.5% forecast for 2011, which is more optimistic than the EBRD’s.
BCR, the biggest bank on the market, has stood by its forecast for next year, expecting a 1.2% economic growth – the lowest in the region. For this year, BCR has revised its forecast up, expecting a 2.1% GDP decline instead of the 3% contraction expected after the VAT hike to 24%. Analysts of the lending institution are thus approaching the official forecast, supported by the IMF.