Economic growth estimates point to 6% in 2007

National Bank Vice-Governor Eugen Dijmarescu (photo) has reached the same conclusion as analysts, and estimates Romania’s economy will grow by 6% this year, compared with the approximate growth of 8% in 2005. “Romania has a high development potential, because it adjusts to the European Union markets. Economic growth this year will be at least 6%,” Eugen Dijmarescu told Reuters in an interview quoted by Mediafax. The 6% estimate for this year’s economic growth is similar to forecasts provided by analysts and several international institutions last month. The World Bank and Deutsche Bank provided the same estimate of 6% growth in 2007. Furthermore, ABN Amro’s research division drew the same conclusion and also anticipates that economic growth will stand at 6 percent in 2007. Somewhat more pessimistically, analysts of the UniCredit group see a 5.7% increase in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2007. Conversely, the government’s official forecast stands at over 6%, with the National Forecasting Commission expecting a 6.5% increase in GDP by yearend. The same institution estimated that GDP rose by 8% in 2006, although the National Statistics Institute will not publish the final data until March. How is this slowdown showing in the various branches of the economy? Preliminary estimates indicate that the industrial sector increased by 7.3% last year, construction increased by 18.1% and services by 7.7%. According to the official forecast for 2007, industry is set to grow by 4.8%, construction by 14.6% and services by 6.7%.