Economy is starting to recover, but there is still uncertainty

A first evaluation of the first quarter of the year from an economic point of view shows that there is still uncertainty and that consumer spending has yet to resume growth, but real estate transactions have slightly picked up, with real estate investors signalling they have access to funding and are betting on a recovery in the second part of the year.

In addition, industrial output continues to grow, driven by demand from abroad. Exports have risen beyond expectations, and in January exceeded imports, which has very seldom been the case in the last twenty years. The export increase amounted to 47.8% against January 2010.

Although slight positive signs have emerged in the construction sector, the signals are not yet encouraging, with consumer spending the main problem remaining.

As for retail, players expect it to emerge from recession in the third quarter. “The first quarter was one of recession in trade. The same will be true of the second quarter. Only then we will see the situation stabilise. But if we compare the first three months of this year with the similar period of last year, we can notice that the situation has stabilised,” explains Alexandru Vlad, general manager of Selgros Cash&Carry Romania, with around 720 million euros in turnover in 2009.

For the market of office rental in Bucharest, the first quarter of 2011 was the best in three years, with companies sealing new contracts for spaces covering around 20,000 square metres, i.e. 1% of the existing Bucharest stock.