Energy players: Stagnation is the best-case scenario this year

Electricity, natural gas and fuel consumption was seriously dented last year, after years of growth that overlapped with the positive upward trend of the entire economy. For 2010, estimates are very prudent, with stagnating sales against 2009 as the best-case scenario for many players. For others, the worst is yet to come.

While in the early 2009 analysts believed the energy sector would be little harmed by the crisis, the falling consumption, the plunge registered in certain industrial branches have marked some markets turning over billions of euros annually and employing tens of thousand people.

Electricity consumption, which started being seen as a gauge of the state of economy, in 2009 shrank by around 10% after years of uninterrupted growth. As regards natural gas, consumption was around 20% lower. The fuel market in its turn fully felt the problems on the construction market, the extremely difficult situation transport firms coped with, and sold volumes dropped by around 5-10% last year. Under the circumstances, more than 10,000 people who worked in energy, oil and gas lost their jobs in the wake of massive restructurings.

Yet, most players are more optimistic about 2010, particularly with regard to a halt in consumption decline.

Thus, Transgaz representatives believe that in 2010 they will manage to transmit around 10% more gas through pipelines compared with 2009, but still less than in 2008.

As regards fuel consumption, market players have divergent opinions. Players such as MOL Romania or Rompetrol believe fuel sales will be almost flat from last year, with the market due to rebound on the medium term. Petrom, the biggest domestic company and the only oil and gas producer in Romania, believes, though, that on the medium and long term the penetration of green technologies will certainly eat into the market of conventional fuel.

As regards electricity, players are cautious: consumption increases will be moderate ones.