Eureko investment manager: Economic growth below zero, no consumption rebound

Romania is in danger of not exiting recession this year, either, because the recovery will not come from domestic consumption, and the only hope is the economic rebound of Western countries, likely to spur, with a certain gap, exports and the increase of GDP, considers Radu Craciun, investment manager of Eureko Pensii managing assets worth around 40m euros. “It’s not realistic for us to expect a domestic consumption pick-up. The unemployment rate will rise further this year, and the pace of lending will stay very low. Thus, we have no reason to expect a consumption rebound, at least not this year. An economic rebound could be based only on rising exports. This is why the NBR does not want the RON to strengthen. A relatively weak currency is important to bolster exports,” says Craciun, one of the best-known analysts on the market, with a 15-year experience on financial markets. He expects GDP trend to range between -0.5% and 1%, but specifies the first quarter is not a good indicator for the entire year performance.