Government optimism again contradicted by reality

Romania is going through the economic year 2010 with the same optimistic tone of the authorities as one year ago when the crisis was denied and the record 20 billion-euro loan from the IMF and EU was presented as “a safety belt”, but no one will tell why the losing “bets” of 2009 should turn into winning ones this year.
Using the same 2009 model, the calming speeches about the Government and the NBR are interspersed with shocking signals: President Traian Basescu points to the scary prospect of a new foreign loan towards the end of the year unless the Government cuts spending, while the Finance Ministry experts are working on a zero economic growth scenario for Brussels compared with the official 1.3% of GDP forecast.
The fourth quarter of 2009 itself should have marked the rebound of the economy, but it was not meant to be, so that the central bank officials moved the expectation timeframe to the second quarter of 2010, while the government is certain Romania will come out of recession in the second half. The same kind of “encouraging” expectations and “bets” with reality as in 2009, the same scarcity of arguments.
Beyond speeches for the public, the governmental experts are taking into account a minimum economic growth scenario of 0.2%, compared with the official 1.3% forecast.