Impending GDP drop triggers various reactions

Romania could experience an economic decline in 2001 and 2002. The forecast, run by Ziarul Financiar on Tuesday, comes from IIF (International Institute of Finance), an organisation comprising most of the private banks throughout the world.

According to the forecast, our economy would drop 0.8% this year and 1% the next year. These gloomy figures contradict other more optimistic forecasts, one of them being included in 2001’s budget, namely the 4.1% economic growth.

The politicians have already taken sides with respect to this forecast. On one hand, the National Liberal Party (PNL) and the Democrat Party (PD), are only glad to move the political disputes to the economic field. “PDSR (Party of Social Democracy) wasted the chance of a favourable set of circumstances, promoting a budget

Law that drifted apart from the initial targets for inflation, budgetary deficit, privatisation, economic growth. This will make it virtually impossible to conclude an agreement with the IMF.

It is only natural that the creation of a social-extremist governmental alliance should lead to Romania’s isolation and send it back to the standstill in Nicolae Vacaroiu’s age,” Eugen Nicolaescu, PNL deputy, feels. He adds that IIF’s forecast proves PNL right in its assessments.

Alexandru Sassu, PD deputy takes the same line, too. “We said that the current budget, as it is now, cannot lead to economic growth. We cannot rejoice when learning about such forecasts, but we can’t help but notice they are denying the very essence of PDSR’s promises.”

The PDSR members, on the other hand, have the last six months’ statistical data on their side and keep their optimism. Nicolae Vacaroiu feels “there are no arguments to make us believe the Gross Domestic Product will drop. The first proof in this respect is the more than 5% economic growth in Q1.”

Vacaroiu says his estimate is the same as the one of the Prognosis Ministry, which anticipates a 4.1% growth for this year.