ING surprisingly upbeat with exchange rate projection: euro down to 4.15 RON in March

Euro is likely to slide to 4.15 RON in the first quarter, from 4.26 RON at present, believe ING analysts, who surprisingly revised their forecast yesterday in the wake of the good news piling up in recent weeks.

Traditionally, ING analysts had a downbeat vision over the RON, but now their projection is the most daring, while the other domestic analysts are still hesitating. According to the previous forecast, the euro should have climbed to 4.3 RON in March.

“The Government’s determination to fulfil IMF requirements is now much more obvious, both at a declarative level, and at the level of concrete steps. This suggests that a new arrangement with the IMF may be reached by April, when the current agreement expires, and chances of hitting this year’s 4.4% of GDP budgetary gap target are higher,” says Nicolaie Alexandru-Chideșciuc, chief economist with ING Bank.

The March level would, however, be the best moment for the Romanian currency, with the euro set to climb to 4.3 RON in June, and then stabilise to 4.2 RON by December.