NBR: exchange rate to set the tone for price variation

The monetary policy signals sent by the NBR (National Bank of Romania) by means of the interest rate channel, have continued to be weakened by the central bank being a net debtor to commercial banks, by the rather shallow market and by the financial intermediation, which has remained low. These are the findings of the NBR, delivered in a presentation on the forecasting and modelling process aimed at targeting inflation. On the other hand, the exchange rate is a “relatively fast” channel, which acts directly through the impact of variations that the RON’s nominal exchange rate has on the prices of imported goods, including the price of fuels, as well as on some excises and foreign currency prices. Therefore, the RON’s consistent appreciation in nominal terms, which started with the highpoint reached in 2006 and has visibly strengthened over the last two years, has contributed significantly to the fast decline of the inflation rate.