Pleasant surprise: Economy down by merely 1.2% in 2010, proving forecasts of -2% wrong

Romania’s Gross Domestic Product fell by 1.2% last year, less than analysts’ and authorities’ forecasts, which hovered around 2%.
The Romanian economy rose by 0.1% in the last three months of 2010 against the preceding quarter, contrary to most analysts’ expectations of a decline.
Analysts, however, say that the figure was very close to zero and could be later revised, with the “plus” or “minus” sign being less relevant.
“This positive figure can be explained by revisions of past data. The -1.2% decline can only be explained if historical series were revised. There could be major revisions both for 2010 and for 2009. One cannot rule out the possibility that the minus of the first quarter has been turned into a plus. If 2009 data have not been revised, one could only come up with 1.2% if first-quarter economic growth were positive,” commented Nicolaie Chideșciuc, chief-economist of ING Bank.
He says considering that the 2010 economic decline was lower than expected, there is a big chance this year’s economic growth could exceed 0.2%.
The austerity measures adopted by the authorities, the VAT hike and the 25% public sector wages cut, were reflected in the GDP dynamics. After the economy’s feeble return to positive territory in the second quarter, the seasonally-adjusted GDP dipped back into negative territory in the third quarter. The GDP fell 2.5% in the third quarter against the corresponding period of 2009, after a decline of just 0.5% in April-June of 2010.