Revised forecasts announce GDP return to growth

After the summer saw several analysts gave as certain that the economy would fall by up to 3% this year and potentially remain in recession in 2011, after third-quarter data on GDP progression were announced, a feeling of optimism emerged.

Even the most pessimistic GDP forecast, that of ING Bank, has been modified, with the bank now expecting the economy to find its way into positive territory next year.
For this year, ING Bank has revised forecasts from a 2.8% contraction to a 1.6% decline, and adjusted next year’s GDP forecast to a 0.2% growth instead of a 1.8% decline.
The Statistics Institute announced a 0.7% GDP decline in the third quarter of the year against April-June on Friday, better than market expectations (-1.3%) and than ING’s estimate (-2.5%).
BCR, the biggest bank on the market, modified its forecast of this year’s economic trend upwards, expecting the GDP decline to amount to 2.1% instead of the 3% contraction anticipated after the VAT was raised to 24%.
For 2011 the BCR forecast on the GDP trend remains unmodified, it expects a 1.2% rise – the lowest in the region.
Officially, the IMF anticipates a 1.5% economic growth for next year, but since the start of the IMF arrangement in the spring of 2009 official forecasts of the institution have been constantly “one step behind reality,” being adjusted downwards from one quarter to the next.