Right-wing alliance adrift, leftist alliance confused

Political parties and analysts think that the gesture made by President Emil Constantinescu two days ago will trigger a restructuring of the Romanian political stage. This decision, contested and appreciated both by his adversaries and supporters, is unanimously deemed as a novelty in Romania’s post-December history.

At a first glance, the decision mostly affects PN?CD, which, together with UFD (Democrat Union of Right-wing Forces), counted on Constantinescu’s candidacy and are now seeking a new formula for presidential elections. But the head of state’s withdrawal will equally affect other ruling factions, hurting electoral plans of Opposition parties as well. Thus, during the following period, new alliances might be set up and new actors might enter the race for presidency. The most frequently mentioned name so far has been Mugur Isarescu, whom PN?CD would mainly favour as a candidate.

“The situation has radically changed and PN?CD will be the most affected since it has no candidate and is blocked until a successor is found for Emil Constantinescu,” political analyst Daniel Barbu told us yesterday. “If it is to find one, this is likely to be Mugur Isarescu,” says Barbu, estimating however that the current premier “is not the most appropriate candidate for presidential elections.”

The Peasants’ leader Ion Diaconescu yesterday announced, as a matter of fact, that during a telephone discussion he had on Monday evening with Mugur Isarescu, the latter displayed “willingness” to run for presidency. Discussions are to be held with all parties that will constitute the centre-right-wing electoral coalition.

On the other hand, the Premier denies the existence of such a dialogue, considering any discussion on this issue as “premature.” “Depending on the final answer of the premier, we will try to re-build the tandem of candidates for presidential elections, or make a new proposal for the position of Premier,” Diaconescu explained yesterday.

The suggestion that Mugur Isarescu should run for presidency was accepted by UFD, ANCD (Christian-Democrat Alliance), FER (Romanian Ecologist Federation), the Civic Alliance and the civic groups within CDR (Romanian Democrat Convention), during the discussion initiated yesterday by the Civic Alliance. A new political construction cannot ignore Mugur Isarescu and Theodor Stolojan, PNL prime vice-president Valeriu Stoica maintains.

On the other hand, ApR leaders two weeks ago decided to speed up negotiations with the Liberals, so as to reach a clear conclusion concerning their participation in the autumn elections, by the end of the month. However, ApR leaders believe that Teodor Melescanu’s candidacy for presidency cannot be contested. PDSR prime-vice-president Adrian Nastase believes that Constantinescu’s withdrawal will not alter PDSR’s electoral strategy, affecting only plans of centre-right parties. In his opinion, Prime Minister Isarescu will not run for presidency, as he has no reason to spoil his “bright future” for PN?CD’s sake.

“Many things depend upon the actions taken by political actors,” analyst Dan Pavel says, speaking about the future of the political stage. Thus, he believes that we will witness “a genuine media war, where various observers and editorialists or opinion leaders will try to influence the public opinion one way or another.” He estimates that we are now ” in a moment when the force lines are drawn.”