ROL decline no longer enough

Romania’s exports are showing signs of fatigue. If mirrored in the euro, which reflects the only image that really matters here, the exports went down in April, compared with the same month last year. Record imports and a monthly commercial deficit comparable only to the levels seen in December, add up to an alarming picture. The strong depreciation of the ROL against the euro (9% since the beginning of the year) is no longer capable of fuelling the growth of exports, which fell 0.4% in euros in April compared with the same time in 2002, reaching 1.1bn euros. Over against April 2002, the euro gained 22.6% against the ROL. In addition, euro’s appreciation does not appear to discourage imports. This is the first time the National Statistics Institute (INS) releases two sets of data about the foreign trade, calculated both in dollars and euros. The export picture as mirrored in the euro is very relevant because it shows the exact export intake of the European Union, the destination of 68.2% of Romania’s total exports in April. Even if calculated in dollars, the exports still fell 11.5% to $1.28bn (1.18bn euros), after having registered the highest monthly level after 1990 in March. ZF