ROL might lose 5-6% to currency basket next year

The depreciation of the national currency against the currency basket comprised of euros and dollars 75/25 could be of 5-6% next year, which means that considering a 9% inflation, the real appreciation of the ROL might be somewhere along the 3-4% line. This is the forecast made by the central bank governor Mugur Isarescu on Tuesday, who said it was all up to the outcome of the EUR/USD rate on the international markets, though.

The domestic currency had lost 15.1% to the European currency from the beginning of the year through Tuesday, while losing only 0.22% against the dollar throughout the same interval.

If taking into account the currency basket used as a benchmark by the central bank, which is a 60/40 euro/dollar mix, the depreciation has come to 9.3%.

Early this year, the central bank was expecting the ROL to actually gain about 4 or 5% against the currency basket, but this indicator was later revised downwards to approximately 2%. Which level enables the central bank to almost be on target, according to the latest official inflationary data.

Even though the central bank pursued a somewhat higher real appreciation of the ROL in the first half, the balance of payments and the salary and productivity trends did not allow it to maintain its goals.

A contribution to upsetting the initial plans this year undoubtedly came from the high EUR/USD rate volatility on the international markets, as euro’s reversals or the spectacular “overnight” comebacks of the dollar made the central bank change its plans.

A foreign currency reserve on target has allowed the central bank to be more relaxed in its interventions on the interbank forex market since last year, a market where it could not afford to relinquish control of the domestic currency’s exchange rate. This relaxation can be somewhat seen in the latest moves made by the NBR under these circumstances.

Moreover, it seems that if the need arises and without being pressured too heavily, the central bank is capable of flooding several hundred million euros onto the market to keep the ROL in check in case the euro becomes much too strong on the international markets.
oana.nuta@zf.ro / razvan.voican@zf.ro