Romania lost one million inhabitants in ten years

(story to be published in tomorrow’s issue, March 29)

For almost a decade, Romania has been subject to an inexorable demographic decline. Every year, the population is decreasing and becoming older. Figures supplied by the National Statistics Commission are relevant in this sense: from 23.2 million inhabitants in 1990, the population of Romania fell to 22.4 million persons last year. Therefore, during this period, the country lost almost 4 percent of its inhabitants. There are multiple causes, equally related to the difficult economic situation and also to the changes in the mentality of Romanians. Even though emigration, having reached its peak during the period 1990-1995, fully contributed to this decline (over 230,000 Romanians preferring to build a better future for themselves in the West), it does not constitute the main factor of depopulation. The problem lies in the catastrophic drop in the birth rate. Romania has less and less children. Though during the interval 1990-1999 the weight of the feminine population of a fertile age (15-49) grew, it did not lead to a rise in the birth rate. The explanation: most couples tend to marry later. Relying to a great extent upon financial support from their parents, young people hold economic safety as a priority (graduation, getting a good job, buying a house). Under these circumstances, the decision to have a child, most often only one child, is made relatively late, around the age of 30. New generations are less numerous, more “diluted,” while, at the other extremity of the age pyramid, there is an old population of a fragile health. “The weight of the population aged 60 continues to be of 18 percent. It could however get to 40 percent in year 2050,” states Vasile Ghetau, a professor of demography at the Bucharest University. Many people would wonder how important is the population dimension of a country? Would a country with 25 million inhabitants count more than one with 20 million on the international scale? Perhaps. The real problem however is to what extent human capital contributes to the prosperity of a nation. And as to this issue, things are quite clear: “The fact that the ratio between the adult and the aged population would fall from approximately 3.5/1 in the present to 1.5/1 in year 2050 would trigger extremely serious implications over the capacity to finance the social insurance and the health budget,” underscores Vasile Ghetau. Romania is in no way the only country that is facing this problem. Excepting France and Ireland, all the states of the European Union witness stagnation or a drop in their population. However, they take it seriously and enforce the right measures in due time. France, whose population increased by 2 million inhabitants during the same interval when Romania lost almost one million inhabitants, is worried about the impact that will become manifest in a decade, when the first numerous generation born after World War II reaches retirement age. At that time in the future, the ratio will be of one French pensioner to 2.1 active persons. Or, Romania is now in a much more serious situation: the number of pensioners already exceeded last year the number of employees. The current demographic involution will only take further this state of affairs, which would be a nightmare even for the most developed countries in the world. “Even if we were to admit an improvement of the demographic situation in the medium term, the deterioration of the age structure is irreversible and demographic and social economic effects will be negative on the long run, occurring in a cascade. To say nothing about the perspective of registering in year 2050 a population of a little more than 16 million persons,” specifies Vasile Ghetau.