Slowdown in industrial output

Industrial output gained 8.3% in absolute volume over the first nine months of the year, but the growth pace slowed down in September. The results are correlated with the evolution of exports, previously announced by the National Institute of Statistics.

Industrial output was 0.5% lower in absolute volume in September as compared to the previous month and a mere 2.5% higher as compared to the year-ago period, below the 7.9% average annual increase, thus pointing to a slowdown of the growth pace as compared to the first months of the year.

However, considering the volume linked to the number of working days, industrial output increased by 11% as compared to August 2001 and by 6.2% against September 2000.

The largest increase was posted in September by the consumer goods production, with 11% in absolute volume, but the indicator was below the level posted for the same month last year.

Three quarters of this category of goods are aimed at exports, as compared to less than 50% for the other categories of goods (intermediary, capital, current use and energy goods), which goes to show that the export potential remains high.

Moreover, other economy fields that generally aim at exports have posted a rather hefty increase over the first nine months of 2001 as compared to the year-ago period: machines and equipment (with 18%), electrical machines and devices (16%) or clothing (with almost 9%).

The slowdown in industrial output became immediately apparent in the meagre increase of September exports (only 0.1% as compared to August).

However, exports maintained a 14% growth pace during the first nine months of the year as compared to the year-ago period, up to 8.6 billion dollars.

During the same interval, industrial output gained 8.3% in absolute volume, with the processing industry increasing by 9.8% and the extractive field posting a 4.3% gain.

The only sector to have posted a decreasing trend since the beginning of the year is the power, gas and water output (down about two percent), although the value of imports in this category went up. The best explanation for this different trends points to the energy price increase.

Population consumption maintains at high levels: retail trade decreased by 2% in September against August, as the summer ended, but is still 2% higher as compared to September 2000.

However, preparations for the winter had a large impact, as food sales increased by about one percent as compared to August.