Too small for a change so big

With almost ten years of quasi-illegal political struggle behind them, the Serb opposition will take another run against Slobodan Milosevic, in a more or less democratic election in September. But their chances are considerably lowered by the deep division that runs among opposition leaders, who have been unable in the last ten years to unite even for the one purpose than binds them: overcoming the Milosevic era and reclaiming a place for Yugoslavia in the international community.

Excessive arrogance, backstage plotting and the lack of a common language despite common goals – all can be cited as reasons for a fragmented opposition, somewhat reminiscent of Iraq, where groups fighting against Saddam Hussein fight even more fiercely against each other.

The biggest rivalry is between Vuk Draskovic, who leads the biggest opposition party in Serbia, the Movement for Renewal (SPO), and the Democratic Party’s Zoran Djindjic. While Djindjic appears to be an indoctrinated democrat who enjoys closeness to the West, Draskovic is a controversial personality, who was once in the Milosevic administration and is still accused by some opposition leaders of doing backstage talking with the Yugoslavian President.

What is certain is that, whereas no less than 15 opposition parties have managed to unite to propose a single candidate for president, Draskovic is pushing his own candidate, causing a severe rupture in what should be a monolithic unity against Slobo. After the vote, Draskovic could always negotiate with Milosevic, on the argument that he had weakened the opposition.

But the opposition problem is not merely a domestic issue. Despite the hardships of everyday life and the country’s difficult situation, many Serbs still believe Milosevic to be a national hero who has firmly stood up to the assailants, regardless of their number and strength. The opposition has tried hard to gain popular support, especially with street protests against the president, but success was scant, and attendance was often disappointing.

What will follow is hard to anticipate, especially with Montenegro in the equation, the small pro-Western republic that alongside with Serbia forms the new Yugoslavian Federation. Authorities in Podgorica have said they would boycott the election, in spite of desperate appeals from the West.

The Western world insists that all democratic forces should take part in the elections, perhaps in the belief that the ballot is the best chance for the opposition to gain a legitimate voice in the structures of Yugoslavian power – local elections, city halls, parliament and even government – in the face of all the fraud the Belgrade regime may attempt. Once this landmark is passed, Milosevic could be removed or at least his influence diminished much more easily and in a democratic fashion, avoiding further bloodshed.

Until then, however, the Serb opposition is still lost in petty arguments, probably instrumented by the crafty Milosevic regime, which feels the approach of a very important moment for its survival.

September 24, when local, parliament and president elections are to take place, is decisive for the future of Yugoslavia and the Balkans as a region.

Until now, however, things seem to be pointing to a happy ending for Milosevic, an obstacle too great for his opponents, who seem to lack even the basic courage to unite against a common enemy.