Tough week ahead for the RON

The euro could climb beyond 3.8 RON this week, and reach a three-year high, according to analysts at local banks, as foreign investors have been anticipating the RON’s depreciation. During last Friday’s session, quotes climbed by around 2% on the Bucharest forex market and peaked at 3.75 RON/euro. The move was generated by the large amount of purchases of foreign currency by foreign players, who closed their positions on all emerging markets in the region. “The currencies in neighbouring regions depreciated on Friday, and the risks could continue today, placing added pressure on the RON,” says Nicolaie Alexandru-Chidesciuc, the senior economist at ING Bank. The NBR (National Bank of Romania) calculated an exchange rate of 3.7269 RON per one euro, up 7.21 bani on the previous level (1 RON equals 100 bani). The euro gained 1.97% against the RON in just one day, after it stabilised at around 3.65 RON in January. Silvian Farmache, head of capital markets division at Credit Europe Bank, says the euro could climb to as high as 3.85 RON within the next few days, if the NBR does not intervene to stabilise the market. The euro approached 3.8 RON in January, after depreciation was fuelled by negative news on inflation, and the slowdown of economic growth.