Unexpected growth on automotive market

The total sales of vehicles in Romania have come to exceed 14,500 units in the first two months of 2004, up nearly 28% from the same time last year. This is much more than estimated by analysts, who were expecting to see 15-20% automotive market growth.

“It is, however, hard to say whether this trend will maintain throughout the entire year. 2004 is an electoral year. Furthermore, Dacia will release its new X90 model. All these factors can make a positive or negative impact on the automotive market this year,” Marius Carp, executive manager of the Association of Carmakers and Importers (APIA) feels.

Dacia carmaker will launch the X90 model this fall, which is the “5,000 euro car” the chairman of Renault Group, Louis Schweizer, announced in the fall of 1999, when acquiring controlling interests in Dacia.

Depending on the market strategy chosen, the Romanian producer could build large stocks of the new model even before the launch, to fill orders.

“The new model may not be available in very large amounts right after the launch. If that is so, those who want to buy such a car might find there are not many units available until early next year. Which means the Romanian automotive market might even see a decline towards the end of the year, given Dacia’s significant position,” Carp added.

As in the last few years, after all, the highest growth in the beginning of 2004 was registered by the imported vehicle brands (more than 33% compared to 25% for the sales of domestic brands).

Whereas the domestic brand segment sees Dacia Solenza and Daewoo Matiz calling the shots, the new leader on the imported car segment is Skoda Octavia, which switched places with last year’s number one, Renault Clio. Although sales of Romanian-made cars progressed by only 25%, the output of such vehicles saw a significant growth of nearly 90%.

“This does not necessary have to be regarded as a production boom, but from the standpoint of the very low output in the same time last year. Early last year, Dacia was getting ready to launch the Solenza model, and SupeRNova ceased being made, as a result of dwindling demand,” Carp explains.

Export is yet another explanation as to the difference between the growth in output and the growth in sales of Romanian cars. Whereas Daewoo has lost all its export contracts over the last few years, Dacia has achieved the exact opposite.

“Romanian car exports are still very low, yet it is clear we are dealing with growth here. The export has been practically sustained by Dacia single-handedly, with its Solenza and pick-up models, but things might change towards the end of the year,” the APIA official added.
ionut.bonoiu@zf.ro