USD going up in January? Don't bet on it!

Are you thinking January would make a good time to bet on the dollar? Because the demand for dollars is much higher than in a regular month, as on the one hand, those that badly needed ROL in December are now reconsidering their foreign currency positions, while on the other, the importers need dollars or euros to pay their bills for 2002?
Whatever the reason, it is less important as also is the previous experience you relate to – see January last year, when the dollar gained about 2%. The most important thing now is the means that the central bank uses or has to use to set the official exchange rate of the ROL against either the USD or the EUR.
From where things stand now, January will not be the month for the dollar, not even by a long shot. Ten trading sessions have elapsed in 2003, but the dollar’s value has not changed much. The latest quote of 2002 showed the dollar to be officially worth 33,500 ROL, while the ROL/USD exchange rate calculated on Friday reached 33,505 ROL/USD. And this happened as a result of one of the most hectic trading sessions this year, when the central bank sold more than $25 million on the interbank market. Actually, the intervention at the end of last week was the second such action of the National Bank of Romania (NBR) this year, following a less impressive one the previous Wednesday. The dealers estimate the central bank has sold some $40 million since the beginning of the year. Maybe this is last January’s history repeating (when NBR sold $104 million on the interbank market), so that the first month of this year will end with the bank as a net foreign currency seller. Only things were different back then.
Whereas a year ago NBR was willingly present on the market to put a damper on the serious depreciation of the ROL, following high demand for foreign currency, its decision at the moment is rather caused by the latest developments on the international markets, where the EUR/USD exchange rate – indirectly impacting on the Bucharest market, as well, keeps everybody guessing day by day.