What comes after the downturn?

This year begins under the sign of fear, but there are chances the yearend should mark an economic rebound.

The year that lies ahead will be as intricate as 2009 in unravelling its trends. Still, one can definitely spell out the biggest concerns and the biggest hopes of the business environment.

At the start of last year, Ziarul Financiar called 2009 the year of uncertainty. Big questions were arising in January 2009 and we are now wondering why these were dilemmas: Will we have economic growth? Will lending freeze? Will exports fall? But considering the whirl had already started in October-November 2008, did we think we could go unscathed? Now, the foreign storm has passed, but growth remains uncertain. For Romania, Ziarul Financiar states 2010 will be the year of fears, but also of hopes. People are afraid of losing their jobs, companies fear they may not be able to survive. But the outlook is not as gloomy as it was six or eight months ago. Some good news may be in the offing: exports may resume growth, interest rates may go down, the stock exchange may rise, European funds may be better absorbed.

Among the biggest fears:

1. The impossibility of the population and companies to pay their debts to banks and other suppliers.

2. The exchange rate rising to 4.5-4.7 RON would be the worst news both for the population and for companies, especially indebted in euros.

3. Job losses, particularly in the budgetary sector, after the private sector made hundreds of thousand people redundant.

Among the hopes:

1. An export rally based on a rebound of Western European economies, providing a boost to the car, furniture or textile industries.

2. A still high level of Dacia exports driven by Western European orders.

3. Ford production picking up speed and becoming important in Romania’s exports.