What does optimism mean for oil firms?

Growth has not been the synonym for optimism in the forecasts of the biggest players in the Romanian oil industry for two years now; it has turned into hope for stagnation instead. While fuel demand has been on a constant decline since 2008, for 2011 oil companies still believe in zero growth.

According to market specialists, a return to pre-crisis levels will be visible as late as after 2012, with cost cuts as the basic strategy until then.
“I believe this year we’ll have a market decline of 5-7% year-on-year and we hope for zero growth next year at best,” says Dmitry Grigoryev, CFO of Rompetrol oil group, ranking second on the market.
His estimates, at least about the trend of the fuel market, can be viewed as positive compared with those issued by the other players, who say oil and diesel oil demand is likely to drop by 10% this year against 2009.
While local authorities see next year’s economic rebound as certain, oil companies have learnt to be more cautious as regards trust in official forecast, so that they see the market going back to the 2008 level as late as after 2012, at best.