Where did economic decline come from in Q1?
Most economic branches had a negative contribution to the GDP progression in the first quarter of the year, with the economy performing worse than expected, and analysts saying Romania will remain in recession this year, following the fiscal adjustment measures.
Most economic branches had a negative contribution to the GDP
progression in the first quarter of the year, with the economy
performing worse than expected, and analysts saying Romania will
remain in recession this year, following the fiscal adjustment
measures.
“According to our estimates, the only sector that had a positive
contribution to the gross domestic product was industry, while the
other sectors continued to see declines, with constructions
remaining the most affected branch of the Romanian economy,” says
Melania Hancila, chief economist of Volksbank.
The GDP fell by 2.6% in the first quarter against the similar
period of last year, and by 0.3% against the first quarter of last
year, according to preliminary data. Tomorrow the National
Statistics Institute will publish details on the GDP progression in
the first three months of the year, including its nominal value.
This value could mean a higher budget deficit in the first
quarter.
Ionut Dumitru, chief economist of Raiffeisen Bank, says all four
main branches than make up the GDP – services, industry,
constructions, and agriculture – had a negative contribution to the
GDP progression in the first quarter of the year, with economic
activity falling significantly short of expectations. “The rebound
of monthly indicators in March could not offset the rather abrupt
declines in industry and constructions in January and
February.”
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