Will Romania return to economic growth in 2011 or will there be a third year of recession?

Analysts anticipate a slight return to economic growth next year, after two years of recession, with the estimated GDP rise ranging between Ă0.2% and Ă2%. However, even if Romania leaves recession behind next year, the tentative economic growth will not be felt in the standard of living.

The economic rebound remains fragile considering the fiscal adjustment started in mid this year, the unemployment rise and the reduction of capital flows. And the key factors to sustainable economic rebound are investments in infrastructure and structural reforms.
It remains to be seen if forecasts will remain unmodified and if they will come true. The official forecast for the economy in 2010 has moved from a 1.3% GDP growth at the beginning of the year to a 0.5% decline at the end of May and to minus 1.9% toward the end of the year.
Ionuț Dumitru, chief economist of Raiffeisen Bank, who has the most upbeat forecast for next year, anticipates a 2% GDP growth.
As for the role of the state in the relaunch of the economy, analysts cite the need to ensure predictability and to reduce taxation red tape in order to attract foreign investments.
Lucian Anghel, chief economist of BCR, says five to ten strategic projects of national importance should be singled out, and spared from any kind of cuts, which should help restore investor confidence.