Analysts see 0.7% inflation for January

According to a poll conducted by Reuters among nine analysts, the rise in consumer prices could stand at 0.7% in January, and at 8.7% compared with the same month last year, meaning that the annualised inflation rate would see an increase. Annualised inflation growth would thus stand at 8.7%, compared to 8.6% in December 2005. Consumer prices increased by 0.5% in December. “The major factor causing a higher rate of inflation in January should be the increase in controlled prices, such as natural gas or electricity prices,” stated Ionut Dumitru, a Raiffeisen Bank analyst. Economists estimate that the lowering of inflation will be resumed in the coming months, due to a possible toughening of NBR”s monetary policy, but the annual level could top the NBR”s 4 – 6% target. “Estimates indicate that the 2006 target could be a near miss. This should lead the National Bank to be more cautious this year, if inflation doesn”t follow its projected trajectory,” said Murat Ulgen, economist with Merrill Lynch London. ZF