Although there never seems to be an exact date by which Romania will know when it will enter the EU, what is clear is that the deadline for EU membership is moving ever closer, whilst Romanians are becoming increasingly perplexed over whether or not they will, as of January 2007, be able to call themselves EU citizens. The next report from Brussels is due in May and this may ease uncertainties, with anti-corruption measures a key component in any accession decision.
Justice Minister Monica Macovei has been trying to allay some fears including a statement that she gave to the EU Observer online in its February 21 edition that she expected the European Commission report to be a good one. “Considering the response of the peer review missions, which was positive, I expect a favourable report in May,” she said.
The report will be decisive in EU Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn”s judgment, due on May 16, on whether or not the country can join as scheduled, or whether a clause in the accession treaty allowing a one-year postponement should be invoked.
Last year, Rehn had warned both Romania and Bulgaria, which is following the same accession timetable, that anti-corruption and food safety measures would be the red flags signalling entry or postponement.
Thus, Macovei”s judicial reforms have been centre stage in the accession process, as have recent moves to put forward an anti-corruption bill.
The bill, which had been blocked by the Senate earlier this month, is now back on track and there has been a flurry of anti-corruption cases in the media although none have reached a meaningful conclusion and probably none, quite deliberately, will before the next EU report in May
Indeed looking at the number of times that the likes of Dinu Patriciu and senior management of Rompetrol along with Nastase and those also linked with the apartments story appear in front of the anti-corruption offices it is clear that someone is trying to give the appearance of a flurry of action relating to anti-corruption without much being achieved by way of results.
On the legal side, the new anti-corruption bill establishes a national anti-corruption department with the ability to probe politicians, a sign to the EU that Romania is taking high-level corruption seriously. Again, a good step, but nothing has yet been tested. Whilst people complain about the laws in Romania, there are in fact several in place that, if enforced, would improve the country from the simple (traffic offences and dumping rubbish) to the more serious areas of the criminal code. The problem is will this welcomed law actually be used and followed through to any serious extent.
It is unclear if just passing this law plus the recent hauling in of politicians and businessmen before the anti-corruption office will be sufficient to guarantee entry into the 25-member club. There is much to do on economic policy, with IMF targets having not been met in terms of inflation and growth. These had been set at 6.5% and 6% respectively for 2005, yet inflation was around 8.6% at end of the year. GDP growth was around 5.5%. Growth this year is looking more like 4.5% rather than the 6% initially forecast.
Many put these shortfalls down to the unforeseen damage caused by the extensive flooding which the country experienced throughout 2005, as well as a higher than expected foreign deficit. The general rising price of oil contributed to this, as did government spending, as the floods not only affected agriculture but had a knock-on effect, with much infrastructure being left in tatters. Because of this damage, government spending had to increase.
The trade deficit by the end of the year exceeded 10bn euros, with the IMF calculating that as a share of GDP the current account deficit ended the year exceeding an alarming 9.4%. There was also an appreciation of the Romanian currency to contend with and low levels of labour productivity, both pushing economic growth to fall short of its target.
Yet taking the long view, 2005 still showed a positive trend. Inflation at the end of 2001 was 33.7%, falling to 17.8% in 2002 and 14.1% by 2003.
But with Romania looking forward to joining the EU in January 2007, there is still much to do. The mechanism by which a delay could be imposed requires that a simple majority of EU member states would have to agree to postpone membership. Many EU watchers suggest that even after Rehn”s report, the true final decision on this is likely to be taken in June, at the EU foreign ministers” and leaders” summit held to mark the end of the current Austrian presidency. Presently, 12 out of 25 states have ratified a treaty to admit Bulgaria and Romania, with the UK being the most recent – Queen Elizabeth II promulgating the treaty finally on February 22. Great Britain gave us a vote of confidence, which shows it trusts Romania”s ability to comply with promises made to the EU, said Minister of Integration Anca Boagiu. Yet two key countries remain worries – France and the Netherlands. They voted against the EU constitution last year in referendums that were also widely seen as a stop sign for EU enlargement.
As far as Romania and Bulgaria”s membership is concerned, however, “Benefits will be brought to the EU,” Macovei told reporters this week, adding that, “There should be more communication on the benefits of our membership by EU governments towards their citizens… I hope and expect that the decision of EU member states on our accession in 2007 is measured on the basis of our results.”
Macovei”s hopes are one thing, but many analysts say further progress on the areas identified by the EU for extra homework is now becoming vital, with time fast ticking away.