(story to be published in tomorrow’s issue, March 20)
Sunday, March 12 will undoubtedly remain a reference date in the history of modern Spain. For the first time since the fall of the Franco dictatorship, a centre-right party has secured absolute majority in the Madrid parliament. The victory of the Popular Party (PP) was anticipated by most political observers and analysts, but few had expected the genuine triumph of the party led by Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar. The results of the parliament elections held eight days ago will allow the Popular Party to govern on its own, without having to pay heed to claims from minor nationalist parties. In 1996, when he narrowly defeated the socialists led by the charismatic Felipe Gonzales, few believed Aznar would survive politically. Four years later, this authoritarian and determined politician is emerging from behind the shadow of his illustrious predecessor. The Spanish Prime Minister has gained a place in his people’s hearts by offering them an image of political stability in spite of the attacks by ETA extremists. His firm stand on the Basque separatist organisation, especially after it decided to resume terrorist actions, has earned him the respect of the millions of Spaniards who are fed up with ETA violence. A telling proof of the trust and sympathy amassed by the Popular Party is that it managed to attract the votes of the great majority of the 2.4 million youths who attended the Sunday polls for the first time in their lives. The promise of a moderate economic and social policy seemed, in the eyes of voters of all ages, more serious than the left’s pledges. The attempt of Joacquin Almunia, president of the Spanish Socialist Workers Party (PSOE), to establish a “pluralist left” in conjunction with the communists, failed, weakening the party’s position in the run-up to the polls. Spain’s position within the European Union has emerged a lot stronger after the elections. Even more – Le Monde writes in a commentary – considering that Jose Maria Aznar was able to distance himself from the Austrian conservatives when they struck the alliance with Jorg Haider’s party. Additionally, the Spanish Premier has been a formidable dialogue partner with the other European “heavyweights.” He enjoys excellent relations with Lionel Jospin and Tony Blair, although they represent the “Left-wing Europe.” This fact will weigh heavily in the future negotiations on re-balancing power within the community bloc. Without a doubt, the Popular Party’s election success largely owed to the economic results of its government so far. Spain had been boasting Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth above most of its European partners even before 1996, when Jose Maria Aznar and his party ascended to power. But since then, the country has scored even better economically, despite an often unfavourable international setting. Aznar’s liberal politics, initially denounced by many of his fellow countrymen, soon started to bear fruit: Spain easily qualified for the first batch of countries to adopt the single European currency. Public deficit was cut to half, and the job creation rate today is three times the EU average. Although unemployment is still high (15.4%), it has dropped seven percent over the last four years. On the verge of a new century, Europe is discovering the image of a dynamic and confident Spain. The cliché of an agrarian country that exports labour to Europe’s richer north and whose revenues depend largely on tourism, has for long had little to do with reality. Indeed, Spain remains the continent’s second largest agricultural producer. But it is also the third-largest European car manufacturer, after Germany and France, but ahead of Italy and Great Britain. In 1999, the exceptional architectural heritage and unique landscape attracted over 45 million tourists to Spain, more than the country’s population. On the other hand, the Spanish highway network last year outgrew Great Britain’s. In fact, infrastructure has seen some of the most ambitious projects in Europe. Soon, the skies of Madrid will be dominated by the tallest skyscraper in Europe. Spain has a good chance of becoming the first country in the world with a railroad capable of commercial traffic at speeds of 350 km/h. After the Madrid-Seville line, commissioned in 1992, AVE trains (the Spanish equivalent of the French TGV) will soon travel along the Madrid-Zaragoza-Barcelona route. The new trains, made in the Spanish factories of French consortium Alstom, will be at the forefront of technology and performance around the world. Many of the infrastructure projects have used European Union funding – so-called subsidies to less-developed regions of the community bloc. But this does not give Spain less credit. The country has managed to take full advantage of its membership in the European Union and has used the financial support available with maximum efficiency. The most visible examples were in transportation, which consumed roughly a quarter of the money coming from the “European cohesion fund.” GDP per capita in Spain is today at around 80% of the EU average, compared to only 70% when the country joined the European Union. With today’s rate of economic growth, chances are the gap will narrow down to ten percent before the end of the 2001 – 2010 decade. From that moment on, Spain will no longer receive funding from the European Union. But this will no longer matter. In 2010, the Spanish economy – already the seventh largest among industrialised countries – should exceed Canada’s. Of course, Spain will have to cope with major challenges in the future. Among them, the most important is keeping the country united before the separatist pressures both in the Basque Country and in Catalonia. The existing semi-federal system, which divides the country into 17 autonomous communities, is in fact a generalised solution for a problem specific to these two regions, where nationalist movements are deeply rooted. Observers believe Spain could adopt a differentiated administrative structure in the future, with some autonomous communities enjoying more “freedom of action” than the rest. Another cause for concern is the country’s demographic involution. Spain’s population has been unchanged in the last ten years, only because of the large numbers of immigrants. In their absence, the population would have dropped by almost 300,000 people. In the short term, immigration can balance the population decline, but reversing the demographic decline – which is deeper than in most European countries – will only be possible with higher birth rates. And Spain will have to consolidate the new international statute it has acquired in the latest years. Its full-fledged membership in NATO, its representation in Western European Union leadership bodies, and its participation in peacekeeping efforts in the Balkans have procured the country the image of a strong partner for the other European powers. More than a century after the humiliating defeat in the war that pit it against the United States in 1898 and made it lose the last remains of its colonial empire, Spain today enters the world stage as a winner.