Ion Iliescu could win presidential elections after the first round, as 51% of Romanians intend to vote for him. He is followed by Emil Constantinescu – 19%, Teodor Melescanu-14%, Corneliu Vadim Tudor-9% and Petre Roman -3%, according to a poll conducted by Metro Media Transilvania between May 4-14, upon request of the Foundation for an Open Society.
PDSR (Party of Social Democracy) enjoys a comfortable 47% margin in the electorate’s options, as compared to 44% in October 1999. According to the poll, the main opposition party is followed by CDR (Romanian Democrat Convention)-15%, (CDR as a whole-7.3%, PN?CD-Peasants’ Party-3.5%, PNL- Liberal Party-3.6%, FER-0.8%), PRM (Great Romania Party)-11%, ApR (Alliance for Romania)-10%, UDMR (Democrat Alliance of Hungarians in Romania)-6%, PD (Democrat Party)-5%, and other parties-6%. The number of undecided persons reaches a level of 34 percent, while 14 percent would not vote.
Persons who would vote for Iliescu and PDSR are characterised, according to the poll, by a low level of education, high consumption of media culture and manifest a low degree of inter-ethnical tolerance. The former president would get 64% of votes in Moldova, 57% in Muntenia and 32% in Transilvania, outrunning even Constantinescu, while PDSR is supported, within these regions, by 65%, 51% and 27%, respectively of voters.
The poll was conducted after the scandal of the “red line” was unleashed and one week after the Costea affair came to light. Sociologist Vasile Dancu maintains that these had a “boomerang effect,” since Iliescu’s electorate is a great media consumer. On the other hand, according to sociologist Sebastian Lazaroiu, these scandals increased the number of those who no longer trust parties and politicians, as well as of those who are undecided or would not vote. Lazaroiu says that “the number of people who would vote for Iliescu did not increase as compared to November 1996, when the previous elections took place.” If, in line with the poll, only 52% of the electorate participate in elections, Iliescu would get about 4,250,000 votes, a figure comparable to the previous elections figures.
Emil Constantinescu outran Teodor Melescanu by 5%. The latter came second in the electorate’s options within the previous poll ordered last October by the Foundation for an Open Society. This was however due to fewer options expressed for Melescanu. Most voters for the current President are elderly people, tolerant, they strongly support NATO and European Union integration, live better than they did one year ago and consider that corruption phenomena are not so numerous. Constantinescu is preferred by 20 percent of people who attended at least grammar school, 16 percent of undergraduates and 27% of university graduates. In Moldova and Muntenia Constantinescu would get 12 percent of votes, coming third, following Iliescu and Melescanu, while in Transilvania he is credited with 30 percent of vote intentions. The poll was conducted among a number of 1,796 persons, with an error margin of up to 2.3 percent.