The current account deficit of the payment balance decreased by nine million dollars in September, after the accelerated increase registered earlier this year had been cut for three months in a row.
The gap registered over the first nine months amounts to 1,378 million dollars, against 798 million dollars over the year-ago period.
This evolution was triggered by the 72.2% increase in the goods and services balance deficit, which was offset by the 27.4% increase in the surplus registered by the current transfers and the 22.6% decrease of the revenue deficit.
The surge is obvious when compared to last year’s data, but the respite between June and September has considerably cut the risk that the deficit should generate financing problems or a higher inflation rate.
“The deficit will inevitably increase over the last part of the year, but the overview is not going to change fundamentally. There will be no problems for 2001, but the high deficit will burden the beginning of next year,” financial analyst Aurelian Dochia said.
According to the memorandum concluded with the IMF, this year’s current account deficit should stand for 6% of GDP (2.295 billion dollars). The value is to maintain in 2002, but it should stand for only 5.6% of GDP, in accordance with the 5% estimated economic growth.
“The current account deficit should increase by only 800 million dollars over the last three months of the year in order to allow us to meet the 6% of GDP level, namely 2.2 billion dollars. I believe we can confine to this level,” Valentin Lazea, chief economist of the National Bank of Romania (NBR) said.
According to Lazea, the deficit stabilisation during June-September was possible because the 300 million-dollar deficit accumulated in the trade balance was offset by the inflows from the current transfers, while the balance in services and revenues maintained quite stable.
The current transfers registered a surplus worth 749 million dollars over the first nine months of the year, with the bulk seemingly derived from the money sent by the Romanians working abroad. “We expect higher transfers and there are signs this phenomenon will increase,” Aurelian Dochia said.
Valentin Lazea also says that the current account deficit can be entirely financed, given that the capital account increased by some 200 million dollars, while the reserve assets remained unchanged.
Romania’s medium- and long-term debt increased by 10.5% between January and September, amounting to 11,194 million dollars.
The public and public guaranteed foreign debt registered a balance of 7,619 million dollars on September 30, 2001, namely 68.1% of the medium- and long-term debt, the same as on December 31, 2000.
Foreign private debt increased by 10.6% over the first nine months of 2001, amounting to 3,575 million dollars at the end of September.