The depreciation of the ROL against the two benchmark currencies, the euro and the US dollar, has become increasingly more serious in the last few days and, considering the latest official statements in this regard, an ascending trend of the ROL/EUR and ROL/USD exchange rate is not entirely out of the question.
There are also the figures to prove it, as the euro – helped up by the central bank through two successive interventions, gained 566 ROL in four days, while the dollar “ate up” no less than 662 ROL.
If looking at percentages, the ROL lost more than 1.65% to the foreign currency basket (a 40%-60% dollar-euro mix) in only four days. This year’s depreciation of the domestic currency against this instrument used by the central bank amounts to 8.08% so far.
NBR maintaining a 2-2.5% real ROL appreciation target against the basket and the over 14% inflation estimates point to – as simple calculations show, a basket depreciation towards 12%. In other words, the last two months of this year should see the ROL closing an about 4% gap against the basket or, to make it simpler, depreciating faster.
NBR might get some help from the euro trend on the international markets for its struggle to contain depreciation. Subsequently, in case the EUR/USD rate reaches 1.2 by December, the ROL/EUR exchange rate may jump to more than 41,000 ROL and the ROL/USD rate to 34,340 ROL. The best case scenario has the dollar gaining ground and the euro worth $1.15. In that case, the euro would be worth a little less than 40,500 ROL.
At any rate, NBR’s scenario on the forex market last week has taken effect. After having managed to get almost the entire foreign currency liquidity of the banks through two major interventions in a row on Tuesday and Wednesday and push the exchange rate up at the same time, the central bank preferred to stand by on Thursday and watch the market grow on its own.
“Even if you wanted to sell foreign currency, particularly because the euro was going down on the international markets, you could not get it. Moreover, the increase in the exchange rate in the first half of the week has made clients buy significant amounts thinking it is best to buy cheap today because no one knows what rates tomorrow holds in store for you,” a dealer said.
oana.nuta@zf.ro