EIU forecasts 5% growth

Romania’s economic growth will be somewhere in the neighbourhood of 5% per year throughout 2004-2007, while this year’s GDP is projected to grow by 4.8%, a survey by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), division of The Economist Group shows. The 2003 estimate considers the foreign investment increase, along with a slowdown in export growth. The British analysts expect to see reforms starting to pay off in 2004, so that GDP will progress by 5.3%. The survey also shows the economic growth will reach 5% in 2005 and 4.6% in 2006 and 2007. EIU adds the current account deficit, which fell to $1.6bn (3.5% of GDP) last year, will go up in 2003 and reach $2.4bn (4.4% of GDP). At the same time, the higher investment volume is expected to boost imports, affecting the equilibrium of the trade balance even further in 2003. Still, the domestic and international economic growth, as well as the low oil prices will allow cutting the current account deficit down to $1.8bn (3.1% of GDP) in 2004. ZF