Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) analysts say Romania will post 4.5% growth this year, failing to meet the official 4.8% target announced by the authorities.
The EIU evaluation follows the report released by the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW), which also forecast an economic growth below the level announced by the Government. WIIW claims Romania’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will only go up 4.2% this year. The Government had originally estimated the GDP would grow 5.2% in 2003. However, at the end of August, the Executive revised the figure down to 4.8%, given the prolonged drought and the poor agricultural output. The Economist Intelligence Unit’s report shows this evolution will be chiefly triggered by accelerated foreign direct investment and privatisation.
Foreign direct investment accounted for $10.09 billion in September this year. According to data compiled by the National Trade Registry Office, the foreign capital was worth $879.1 million for the nine months this year, up 13.1% from the year-ago period.
When speaking of economic growth, the EIU analysts estimate a similar advance for Bulgaria as well, a value that exceeds the average growth pace of the countries in Central and Eastern Europe, namely 3.1%.
Poland’s GDP was forecast to go up 3.3% this year and 4.3% in 2004, given the improved situation in the corporate sector and exports. As for the Community of Independent States (CIS), growth is estimated to amount to 6.2% this year. But the growth pace may drop to 4.7% as of next year, as the oil prices are expected to plunge on the international markets, which will hurt Russia and other oil producing countries, as well. miruna.lebedencu@zf.ro