Euro headed towards 40,000 ROL

What will become of the exchange rate of the domestic currency against the dollar or the euro at the end of the year? Will the euro continue to gain ground and will the depreciation of the ROL against the European currency keep moving at the same pace as last year? These are questions whose answers – particularly after the latest developments on the international markets, may change from day to day. How do the analysts see the trends of the ROL exchange rate in the second half, anyway? “If starting from a 14% inflation in 2003 and considering a 4% ROL appreciation target in real terms, we see an increase in the EUR/USD rate towards 1.2, a ROL depreciation against the euro of 15.5% and a depreciation against the dollar of 1.5% a year, at least for now,” says Radu Craciun, senior analyst at ABN Amro Bank Romania. In absolute figures, the ABN Amro analysts see 40,317 ROL/euro for the end of the year and 33,594 ROL/dollar respectively. The analysts at Bank Austria Creditanstalt, member of the German HVB Group, in their turn see the single European currency going up. They estimate the EUR/USD rate to reach 1.2 by the yearend. “In spite of the current trends, BA/CA bets on an about $1.2/euro rate for the end of the year. As for the Romanian market, we believe an average exchange rate of 36,848 ROL/euro would be on schedule,” Marianne Kager, BA/CA head economist comments. ZF