Exchange rate back to 33,338 ROL/USD

Yesterday’s appreciation of the euro against the dollar on the international markets and the banks’ need for ROL in order to deposit their minimal mandatory reserves, in addition to the lack of any NBR intervention on the market have shown in a ROL/USD exchange rate drop by about 200 units over the last two days.
The National Bank of Romania (NBR) yesterday calculated a 33,338 ROL/USD exchange rate, which is practically 162 units lower than early in the year when the dollar had come to total 33,500 ROL. In other words, the domestic currency gained 0.4% against the dollar.
Even though the idea of the euro replacing the dollar in the Romanian economy has been induced over the last twelve months, as well as the central bank relating its foreign currency exchange rate policy to a basket comprising the two currencies, for many people the dollar remains the benchmark currency, also used for trading on the interbank forex market in Bucharest.
As for NBR’s basket, in which the dollar accounts for 40% and the euro for 60%, the ROL depreciation had reached 1.15% by yesterday, which is an acceptable level. An euro was worth 35,687 ROL yesterday, which means the domestic currency had lost 2.1% against the euro since the beginning of the year.
Where yesterday’s drop in the ROL/USD exchange rate is concerned, the dealers say there must have been some speculation here, because the interests were very high yesterday and the day before. It had eventually become more profitable to sell the dollars and deposit money in ROL if the interests were good.
“There were banks that probably took advantage of the increase in interests these days, did their sums and decided it’s more profitable to sell the dollars and deposit ROL in the short-term. Anyway, the EUR/USD rate that reached 1.073 euro/dollar yesterday made a rather big impact on the ROL/USD and ROL/EUR rates, but this is no longer news,” says Cristian Sporis, chief dealer with Raiffeisen Bank Romania.
After all, the trend of the EUR/USD rate on the international markets, which has practically gone beyond all expectations, neutralises almost any attempt to estimate the ROL/EUR and the ROL/USD exchange rates at the end of the month.
“It’s hard to say. These few days have made us change our plans a bit. We’re now betting on a 33,500 ROL/USD exchange rate for the end of January and on a 1.07-1.075 euro/dollar exchange rate. How nice it would be to know about these things in advance!” says Claudiu Cercel, head of the market operations department within Banca Romana pentru Dezvoltare (Romanian Development Bank – BRD). The treasurers of another top-five bank are a little more optimistic, though, and see the dollar reaching 33,200-33,250 ROL by the end of the month, while the euro will stop somewhere in the neighbourhood of 35,000 ROL.