Exports and investments spur growth

Industry (6.9%), constructions (6.8%) and services (4.4%) pushed the economic growth for the first three quarters of this year up to 4.5% – the full-year projected growth, with the Gross Domestic Product exceeding $30.2bn.
The GDP got a considerable boost in Q3, when it went up 4.7% compared with the same time last year. Industry was the top performer, 10.9%, followed by constructions, 8.6%.
“A 4.3%-4.7% growth is shaping up for 2002, which would mean Romania is likely to register the highest growth rate in the region for the second year in a row,” Radu Craciun, ABN Amro senior analyst told Ziarul Financiar.
Exports were the nine-month growth drive, as they reached $11.3bn in late October. Population consumption maintained at a managed growth of 3.6%. On the other hand, investments rose 7.8% (some $6bn), with the investment rate calculated by relating the gross capital formation to the gross added value in the economy amounting to 22% compared with 21.3% in 2001.
“Going beyond the 4.5% is not out of the question, as long as we take exports into account, the performance of which will exceed all our expectations, as well as the dynamic of the industrial output in October,” Development and Prognosis minister Leonard Cazan told Ziarul Financiar. He explains the poor agricultural performance (4.9% decline) by a delay in reporting, as well, with the actual growth to show in Q4.
“The remarkable thing is the investment increase (also announced by the intermediate results), which is good, suggesting the retooling process was behind the import growth, instead of the population consumption,” Radu Craciun said.
The highest export growth was registered for the electrical machinery, plant and equipment, which sold 25% more. The most money, that is nearly $3bn, was, however, collected from exports of clothing, which account for 25% of the total.
Exports in October came close to the all time high set in July ($1.33bn), with $1.31bn collected. The average increase compared with last year’s average is 38.6%.