Romania’s 2004 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will be similar to the one in 1989. The make-up of the indicator, however, is much more different now than the one registered 14 years ago if looking at the contribution of the various sectors, PSD (Social Democrat Party) deputy Florin Georgescu on Tuesday said.
Calculations, on the other hand, show Romania will attain only 97.27% of 1989’s gross domestic product in 2004, although its economic growth rate is projected to reach 5.5%. It will match 1989’s GDP only in case of a highly unlikely 8.5% growth. After all, Finance Ministry’s calculations based on the data supplied by the National Prognosis Commission show next year’s GDP to amount to 97.5% of the GDP in 1989, as well.
“It took 14 years to bring the GDP to the same quality. GDP’s structure is different now, however. It reflects the structural changes made throughout this period,” Georgescu said.
The PSD deputy who is also the chairman of the Budget and Finance-Banking Committee within the Chamber of Deputies says services will contribute 45% to the GDP formation, while industry will account for only 29.5%. The GDP 14 years ago was made up 46% of industrial operations, while services accounted for only one quarter of it. Georgescu explained that if looking at the purchasing power parity, Romania’s GDP was of nearly $6,000 per capita. He said the distribution of the added value was much more polarised now than it was in the early ’90s.
As for the other economic indicators, next year should come with a December to December inflation of 9%, while the average annual inflationary rate should reach 11.5%. The Budget-Finance Committee chairman also specified that the depreciation of the national currency against the foreign currency basket would be 1 or 2% below the inflation. The economic decline began after 1989, with GDP plunging every year by 5.6% in 1990, 12.9% in 1991 and 8.8% in 1992.
The 1992-1996 period saw successive output rebounds, with a less obvious growth registered in 1996. The most significant progress was made in 1995, when the economy grew by 7.1% (compared to 1.5% in 1993, 3.9% in 1994 and 3.9% in 1996). razvan.voican@zf.ro