GDP loses almost 12bn euros

The Romanian Forecasting Commission (CNP) has dramatically revised economic forecasts for 2009-2013, announcing a 4% contraction of the economy, compared with a 2.5% rise expected at the beginning of the year. CNP data indicate a 125 billion-euro GDP for this year, 11.8 billion euros lower than the one recorded in 2008. The economy will resume growth next year, when a tentative 0.1% rise is expected, and a 4.4% increase by 2013. Export forecasts have also gone from rise to fall, with the new forecast providing for a 15% decline. Exporters will, thus, collect over 5 billion euros less than last year, with the overall value of exports to amount to 28 billion euros. Even if exporters post lower sales, the depreciation of the exchange rate will mean that they will get more RON for the euros they sell on the forex market. This year, CNP expects an over 15% depreciation of the RON, announcing an average exchange rate of 4.25 RON/euro. The reduction in economic activity will also have social effects, with the unemployment rate to hit a 6.8%, the highest in five years. According to CNP data, the situation will not improve in the next few years, either, with the employment rate to stay above 7% by 2012. Last year, it amounted to 4.4%.