The evolution of inflation, this autumn’s budget rectification and domestic debt’s refinancing by means of government bonds are the main causes that will influence the evolution of interest rates over the following months, this issue being deemed as “delicate” by the interviewed specialists. According to the poll conducted by Ziarul Financiar, most of the respondents expect that, by the end of the year, interests would attain a 45% level.
“Everybody knows that the interests granted for natural persons’ deposits have been real negative for the past few months, as their evolution followed that of inflation. NBR’s main objective is to bring interests to a real positive level and this will be possible only if inflation goes down. I don’t think this goal will be achieved in September, as major increases in utility tariffs have already been announced.
There are no signals indicating that inflation will go down, therefore interests will continue to be real negative. The situation is not likely to improve in the following months, either. During the fall-winter period prices usually have increasing tendencies and this year there is also a great deal of uncertainty linked to the electoral cycle.
Moreover, this autumn’s budget rectification will involve revenues’ growth, but also the tendency of economic units to increase prices, which will again affect the inflation rate. The conclusion is simple: I do not see any optimistic tendencies in the following period as far as inflation and interests are concerned.” (Teodor Buftea, head of the monetary policies department within the National Bank of Romania – NBR)
“In my opinion, interests will remain the same, though they should go down in order to stimulate crediting. The level of interests depends on the governmental credit, therefore as long as the budget absorbs money, I don’t see how they might evolve.” (Radu Cojocaru, chairman of Intervam brokerage company)
“I believe that towards the end of the year passive interests that commercial banks offer to clients will be of about 40%, the active ones will attain a 60% level, while interbanking interests and government bonds will stand at a 50% level. We should bear in mind that the period of public utilities imports is coming, that the agricultural year was a bad one, not to mention inflation, which is a corollary.” (Radu Gratian Ghetea, prime vice-president of Alpha Bank Romania and chairman of the Romanian Banks’ Association)
“Interests will register a slight increase in the following period, since the state needs money, at least in September, and has no other solution than to accept an increase of the interests offered by government bonds.
Let’s not forget that in September the Finance Ministry intends to borrow about 9,000 billion lei and has to return approximately 6,000 billion lei, therefore there is no going back for the offered interests. The increasing trend registered by T-bonds will influence both the interests granted to the population and the rates levied for credits.
Towards the end of the year, we will have interests of around 48-50%, and the average should stand at 38%, a value approximately similar to the inflation rate.” (Iosif Pop, Banca Transilvania chairman)
“In my opinion, in the following three months, interests offered to the population should become real positive and attain a 42-45% level. Budget rectification involves new funds for salary adjustments. Thus, the Finance Ministry will have to accept paying higher interests for government bonds, otherwise it won’t be able to obtain any money.” (Alexandru Tasnadi, economic analyst)