Lukoil rules out the upbeat scenario for this year

Constantin Tampiza (photo), Lukoil Romania’s CEO, has drawn up three scenarios on which to base his operations during this crisis year: a downbeat one projecting a 5% GDP decline, a medium one betting on zero growth and an upbeat one, which Lukoil official says he does not even take into account. “This year will be fine if we have the same GDP as last year. I have several scenarios. Should GDP drop by 5% from 2008, I believe that what happened in January with fuel sales will be valid for the entire year. From 80m-dollar operating income last year, we could go to losses of 6-8 million dollars should this scenario materialise,” Tampiza says. According to him, Lukoil posted turnover worth 2.15bn dollars (1.46bn euros) last year, up 21.4% from 2007, and operating income worth 80m dollars (54.4m euros), compared with 79m dollars in 2007. Last year, though, sold volumes shrank against 2007 from 1.545 million tonnes to 1.48 million tonnes. “As we sold less, the increase is clearly due to oil price trend and its impact over fuel prices,” Tampiza says. The second scenario Tampiza takes into account is flat GDP, which would bring sales volumes similar to 2008 ones. “I’m not even considering an upbeat scenario for this year,” Tampiza says. He says he will particularly focus on retail, but reckons the steps he can take to support sales are limited.