Daniel Negrescu, brand manager of wine producer Murfatlar, says the wine market will resume growth a year after the recession is over, and the economic rebound will not be felt immediately in terms of consumption because people will be tempted to save more than they used to in 2007-2008.
“A lot of people are losing sight of one aspect. Even if all economic indicators return to growth, it doesn’t mean consumption will rebound and everybody will start to spend right away. It is true that when incomes fall and things are bad, one starts to make cuts from day two. Let’s not forget that consumers have been marked by the crisis. They will not go spend all their money the very next day,” Negrescu told ZF in an interview.
The Romanian wine market is put at around 450 million euros per year and 6 million hectolitres and, according to Murfatlar, it fell by up to 10% in 2009 in terms of volume and by over 10% in terms of value.
“Now people will be much more cautious and even if things are good, consumption will not rise that fast. It is very hard to make changes in consumer behaviour go away. No one will take out a loan for a child’s birthday party or for anything else that was fashionable at one point or another,” believes the Murfatlar manager.
Economic recovery will be important for business, he adds, firstly because money will be recovered faster from the market, whereas consumption will not rebound straight away.
The around 10% decline recorded in 2009 places the wine market in the category of markets that have not been very much affected by the economic crisis. The significant decline in the value of the market compared with the volumes sold is explained by the migration of consumers from the medium price segment to the low-priced one.
“The biggest segment of the market was the medium-priced one, which was the most affected because many consumers moved to the low-priced segment due to the economic conditions,” says Negrescu.
The average price in the wine industry is 9-10 RON, and the first signs of this migration appeared at the end of 2008 when the winter holiday period no longer brought the traditional sales boom.
“2008 saw rises, but not as high as in past years. Those were the first signs that it was a time of new values. 2009 consolidated this trend. He said it was not just a signal, but that things were changing,” Negrescu added.