Local elections are getting some party leaders extremely confident in their chances to earn beefy Parliament percentages on their own. The three top finalists – PDSR, PD and ApR – say they aren’t even considering potential alliances, because they can repeat their recent success on their own. PNL and CDR say they may stay in power, despite PDSR’s rise, if they get the right ally. But will voters join the game? Will they repeat the local-election vote?
Winners or not, parties are forgetting, at least in what they say politically, that voting is on different criteria in the local and in parliament elections. In the locals, a candidate’s personality is what counts, and in villages and small towns, personality often overshadows political allegiance. The same happens in the big cities, although at a smaller scale. A charismatic candidate can scoop up the votes intended for other parties, although his party may be diametrically opposite and can divert its electoral capital to those who compete for local and county councils.
Whereas in the parliament vote, everything is political rather than personal. Fidelity kicks in for each party’s hard-core supporters, regardless of what the press or the other candidates say. The Metro Media Transilvania poll, which interviewed people leaving the voting booths, showed that 40% had decided who to vote for as far back as four years ago. Understandably, the same should happen in the parliament vote.
Candidates’ personalities in the vote could be overwhelmed by parties’ political programmes, by the electoral programme, by the message. True, some candidates to the Lower House or Senate, genuine local personalities, or via a fruitful relationship with the local media, can earn themselves enough votes or play a decisive contribution in attracting them.
Furthermore, in the parliament, vote a very important role will be played by the presidential candidates. Ion Iliescu is the undisputed idol of the PDSR hard-core voters. Teodor Melescanu is the key to ApR’s success. Without Corneliu Vadim Tudor, PRM would have been a mere unnoticeable party. Even Petre Roman managed in the last election campaign to push PD beyond the four or five percent suggested by opinion polls.
Of course, to all this adds the campaigning everyone will do for himself, while the same Metro Media Transilvania poll reveals that voters tend to perceive positively any information they receive in the election period.
Therefore, regardless of voters’ fidelity, some changes are possible. Any party that will know how to manage its image, not only the electoral offer, will stand to win. At a time when people’s confidence in parties is at alarming lows, it is essential for parties to avoid scandal and quickly dispose of any ballast. Here, PN?CD stands to suffer the most, while PD reaps the fruits of four years of image campaigning.
On the other hand, PDSR and ApR should not keep quiet in the face of the Costea affair, even though, according to the latest polls, it has not affected their public perception. It has been proven that image begins to erode some time after a scandal breaks out. Of course, considering the electorate’s current preferences, other parties may fail to attract PDSR and ApR, and will only add to the mass of undecided and absentees.
Results will depend on the personalities framing the party and the presidential candidates. Parties’ swiftness in accepting the habit of a duo running for Presidency and Government shows that today’s political prima donnas are realising that alone they won’t be able to raise more votes, and that they need a strong partner. According to the polls, the most successful people are the technocrats, who may be dragged into a party by this formula without feeling politically “tainted.” Here, the battle will be waged for Theodor Stolojan, the prime minister who conquered the Romanians with unfinished sentences, and Mugur Isarescu, the prime minister who seems to have saddled the coalition and conquered international institutions, the prime minister who reminds the Romanians almost weekly about the economic growth under their very eyes. Another candidate could be Traian Basescu, perceived as a specialist and a resolute man.
The autumn elections will therefore depend on more than just the local election results. Perhaps the latter have been disappointing to some or thrilling to others. But such reactions will lose steam by autumn, and what will count will be parties’ performance and politicians’ wits, in a word, their capacity to stimulate the undecided and the absentees. Attracting this category could turn around any pre-electoral predictions, because it would lead to a drop in PDSR’s percentages. Sociological studies have shown that most of those undecided would not vote for Ion Iliescu’s party, but would rather go for a centre-left alternative – ApR – or a centre-right, even right-wing party.