The Romanian pharmaceutical market is likely to go beyond the 2.5bn-euro mark over the next five years, whereas competition between the main players will become tighter.
“Over the next four-five years, the pharmaceutical market is projected to grow by 12-16% per year. The future will bring a steady growth pace, at least for the next 3-4 years,” stated Dragos Dinu, A&D Pharma CEO.
Compared with the other European countries, Romania will see a distinctly superior growth pace, allowing the market to double in size.
“We believe that, over the next five years, the value of the market will double compared to the level seen in 2005, which Cegedim, a market research company, puts at almost 1.3 billion euros in wholesale prices. The market will exceed 2.5bn euros,” said Gabriel Cernica, a marketing and development manager with LaborMed Pharma. His opinion is shared by Stephen Stead, Terapia”s CEO. “The following period will see some growth, and should we speak in terms of percentage points, this is likely to revolve around the value of 250%,” said Stead.
On the other hand, Gabriel Cernica feels that the progressive decline in commercial margins, particularly at the level of distributors, and the authorities” price regulation pressures are likely to tone down the growth pace.
In line with data released by Cegedim market research company, consumption of pharmaceuticals reached 1.27 billion euros last year, up 18% from 2004.
At the level of last year, retail (sales through pharmacies) boosted market growth since sales through hospitals witnessed an insignificant increase. Thus, consumption through pharmacies hit 3.47 billion RON (around 950 million euros), about 25% higher compared with 2004.
“This is the segment that”s been entirely privatised, and private operators have made massive investments in order to take pharmaceutical retail to Europe, well ahead of other market segments,” said Dinu.
In the long run, the same retail segment is estimated to have a major contribution in terms of consumption growth. “Undoubtedly, retail will see the most spectacular evolution because it is much more cost efficient to offer ambulatory treatment. The ratio between the two is 80% to 20%,” said Stephen Stead. The other players share the same opinion. Gabriel Cernica says the evolution of consumption through hospitals will be largely influenced by the private sector”s ability to rapidly develop the segment of health services.
Currently, in Romania, drug consumption per capita is much lower than in the other Central and East-European countries, but the gap is very likely to narrow down.
“In 2010, consumption will be similar to the level now seen by Central and East-European countries, Hungary or the Czech Republic, where we can speak about 120 dollars,” Stead added.
Pharmaceutical market
* Likely to go beyond the 2.5bn-euro mark over the next five years amid tougher competition
* Estimated to grow by 12-16% per year over the next 4-5 years
* Consumption of pharmaceuticals last year reached 1.27bn euros, up 18% from 2004
* Sales through pharmacies (retail) boosted market growth last year, while sales through hospitals saw modest growth
* Retail will continue to have a major contribution to the long-term growth of the market.